Infrastructure does not mean roads and bridges, apparently

Congress passed a much-ballyhooed "infrastructure" bill. "Roads and bridges." Well, not much of it went to roads and bri...

Interest-rate surveys

  Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, passes along the above gorgeous graph. Fed forecasts of interest rates behav...

The cost of crying wolf

Why do so many Americans believe crazy things? Maybe not "crazy," but beliefs that wildly get wrong factual costs and benefits, su...

Stock market fall and long-term investors

  Having just plugged " portfolios for long-term investors " again, I really should opine on its message about the recent stock ...

Portfolios for long-term investors

"Portfolios for long-term investors" is published, Review of Finance   26(1), 1-42. (2022). This  standard link works if you have...

Institute for progress

We need to be reminded occasionally that nothing matters but long-run growth, and long-run growth all comes from productivity, better knowle...

Accounting for the blowout / Project Syndicate

A Project Syndicate Essay. Before it moves on to climate change, inequality, and racial issues, the Fed should have to think just a little ...

Fed Nominees

I salute President Biden's nominations for the Federal Reserve Board, especially Sarah Bloom Raskin and Lisa Cook. (Philip Jefferson see...

Fiscal Inflation.

This is an essay, prepared for the CATO 39th annual monetary policy conference.  It will appear in a CATO book edited by Jim Dorn. This is a...

Weekend reads on the state of America -- and China

Two pieces stood out from some weekend internet meandering.  Marginal Revolution  points to an excellent long letter from David Wang  on Ch...