A happy thought on super-spreaders

From one of my super-smart colleagues.

The key is to get R0, the average number each infected person gives it to, below one. If that is done, the virus dies out.

R0 has a fat tail. Almost all spreading is done by a few super spreading people in super spreading events and activities. Cut those out and the problem is gone. Keeping the rest of us at home is a waste. (Latest, discovery by my wife. Dog groomers are shut down. One cutter, one dog, one store. No)

Happy thought: to the extent that super spreaders are super-spreading people, people with particularly bad habits, or people in particularly exposed jobs, they are most likely to get it and become immune. Thus, super-spreading naturally tails off on its own, and the average reproduction rate falls on its own. If the small herd of super-spreaders gets immunity, that helps the virus to die out.

This is one case I've heard of that heterogeneity in R0 rates affects the average that is tracked by most epidemic models.

from The Grumpy Economist https://ift.tt/3ejvMDG